Saturday, October 1, 2016

Two models now in line for a hard strike...

...with three more coming in line during the early period (as they don't go out far enough). Now the Navy Nogaps is also showing a cat 3 strike on the northeast coast over Montauk Point after pounding the entire coast from Miami all the way up.

As expected, overnight, Mathew made it to cat 5 status, though the inner eyewall looks like it's being replaced by the middle one for the past several hours, this could mean nothing as far as intensity loss goes, if the new primary eyewall stabilizes quickly. Additionally, the storm remains over untouched, deep and very hot waters, which are conducive for Gilbert style re-intensification. This may allow the storm to maintain cat 5 intensity all the way to Jamaica or even Cuba, but it will depend on sheer as the northerly movement begins sometime tomorrow.

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