Saturday, October 1, 2016

Two models now in line for a hard strike...

...with three more coming in line during the early period (as they don't go out far enough). Now the Navy Nogaps is also showing a cat 3 strike on the northeast coast over Montauk Point after pounding the entire coast from Miami all the way up.

As expected, overnight, Mathew made it to cat 5 status, though the inner eyewall looks like it's being replaced by the middle one for the past several hours, this could mean nothing as far as intensity loss goes, if the new primary eyewall stabilizes quickly. Additionally, the storm remains over untouched, deep and very hot waters, which are conducive for Gilbert style re-intensification. This may allow the storm to maintain cat 5 intensity all the way to Jamaica or even Cuba, but it will depend on sheer as the northerly movement begins sometime tomorrow.

Friday, September 30, 2016

Interesting scenario for next weekend

The GFS has now consistently shown for the past two days a direct landfall by Mathew somewhere between Hatteras and Cape Cod... as a cat 3/4 hurricane. What's worse is the latest run has it passing extremely close to the coast from Miami all the way up to Rhode Island before making landfall next Sunday morning as a 959mb cat 3 storm... an extremely devastating prospect.

Will have to see how this plays out of course, but the consistency is startling, as is the fact that the other models are slowly coming more in line with the GFS' solutions.

What's truly baffling is that NHC couldn't figure out that the storm was entering a rapid intensification phase last night before sun set, despite the picture perfect cloud pattern as the sun was going down. I see no reason why this storm doesn't continue to rapidly intensify into a cat 5, while sitting over blazing hot, deep, virgin waters in the Caribbean. With triple eye walls, the sucker is displaying incredible structure, despite the relatively high core pressure.

Monday, May 30, 2016

1 Million+ Lightning Strikes In Two Hours

A new record was established by the Vaisala lightning detection system during a major severe thunderstorm outbreak a few days back. More than 1,031,000 strikes were observed in the continental US within a two hour period, breaking the old record of 913,000 set last year. This occurred on the same day as the monster F4 twister that tore across the plains for 90 minutes. One of the longest lasting tornadoes ever recorded.

Adding on to an impressive hail fall season, was the measurement of softball sized hail (4" diameter), capping off what is all around the most impressive day of the season so far.

Saturday, April 16, 2016

Badass. Period.

First Godzilla Resurgence trailer.

Saturday, April 9, 2016

Third Warmest Winter On Record

This past winter came in at the third warmest winter on record with an average temperature of 36.5º, which falls behind 1998 & 2002 at 37.0º and 38.6º respectively. Both of those winters were powered by monster El Ninos like this winter had, however neither of them were influenced by the still ongoing dual cold anomalies in the North Atlantic, which is still sitting at some three to eight eight degrees Celsius below normal.

Snowfall came in at about three inches below the ten year average, through March 27th, but considering that most of this fell with in a four week period in an El Nino year, it is a truly astonishing number.

Strange as it is, we've had three days with snow so far this month (tonight could soon add a fourth day), which is highly unusual under normal conditions and down right unheard of coming off an El Nino winter. The only silver lining to Spring's late arrival is that the severe storm season is getting off to a slow start for the third year in a row. Not that this means much, as we've already seen nasty t-storms much earlier than normal this year so far (cells came through a few weeks ago with measured gusts to 60mph), not to mention the tropical storm force winds behind last weekend's synoptic storm, that were clocked as high as 62mph sustained atop the bluffs overlooking the water along the north shore.

The above said, the GFS is hinting at the first moderate scale severe t-storm event of the season on Monday into Tuesday for the southern plains and points east, but things do look reasonably quiet after that.

Also, I know this video has been making the rounds the last few days, but… for the love of god people, heed the warnings when they're given… It's what is arguably the most intense and disturbing footage ever caught on camera of a tornado making a direct hit on the location of the camera man. The tornado involved was a confirmed F4 at the time. It is essentially to tornadoes what the famed "Gas Station" video is to hurricanes.

Sunday, February 7, 2016

Or maybe it's something else...

Something else that's had me worried for the past 4 months since it came to my attention. The possibility that a long awaited sign of an abrupt climate shift has appeared. There has been a massive cold anomaly in the North Atlantic for the past 12 to 14 months, right in a spot that is critical to oceanic circulation. Until now, it hadn't been apparent that the anomaly had a connection with the colder than normal year in the area last year, nor the record cold last February. Prior to December that is. But now there is the growing possibility that there is indeed a connection.

How so? Consider that the El Nino that produced the strongest hurricane ever seen is still out there, although not as strong as it once was, but yet we are still getting nailed with snow storm after snow storm. During El Ninos of this magnitude (think '97-'98), very little snow should be falling at all in this region, yet we are on pace to have re-couped all of our normal snowfall for the entire season within a three week period. And then some. How is that possible…?

A quick look at the upper level patterns show that we have once again regained the same pattern that dominated for nearly all of last year. A huge ridge in the west, and a massive trough in the east. Models are now indicating a possible shot of brutally cold air like last February's relentless onslaught, for this Thursday through Sunday. This is something else that should be outright impossible with a strong El Nino ongoing, yet it is possibly about to happen with 50/50 confidence.

Of particular interest as a possible explanation for all of this is the aforementioned cold anomaly in the North Atlantic. SSTs in the area between southeast Greenland and northern Europe have been well below normal (-4ºC DFN) consistently for at least a year. The size of this cold anomaly has been slowly increasing during this time, with varying intensity of -3ºC DFN to -6ºC DFN. Further, a new cold anomaly has appeared within the Labrador Current off Nova Scotia, which is truly astonishing in its severity. Current SST analysis indicates a DFN of -11.2ºC. This is not just a massive, but epic discrepancy. The size of areal coverage is relatively small compared to the larger one, but is still itself the size of the entire northeast US. There is but a 250 to 300 mile wide gap in between the two anomalies… if these two were to fuse… it could be a smoking gun as to the state of the Thermohaline Circulation's strength in the area.

Why is this important? Put simply, the last time the Thermohaline Circulation indicated warning signs like this, the Little Ice Age was about to begin. Unfortunately for those who believe that global warming will either mostly negate this shift or eliminate it entirely, this would appear to be a grave mistake. I've always known such an assertion to be completely false, as the numbers never added up, but the proof may now be staring us in the face.

This bears further observation to see if the SST anomalies continue and if so what may be coming down the pipe, because it may not take too long to come out of the faucet and by the time it does, it may be too late to react. Either way, a very bizarre winter marches on, with extreme warmth followed by heavy snows. With possible brutal cold spells making a return.

El Nino took a vacation apparently

So apparently El Nino took a hike early this winter, because the snow machine is running on full power now. After getting nailed with 11" two days ago, we're looking at snow every day this week starting tonight, which should bring us back up to a normal snow season if it pans out to drop a cumulative foot of new snow over the course of the week. We're at a bit over 34" for the season, with a typical season being a bit over 42". This should be outright impossible if a strong El Nino were around… hell we shouldn't have gotten any snow at all with as strong as the El Nino was supposed to remain this winter.

Still, temperatures have been swinging wildly since New Years, with one day being 55º to 65º, then a few days later snowing like hell and 25º to 30º before dumping to 15º, then back again, over and over again in rapid succession.

A highly un-usual winter indeed.